Business/Finance

Housing starts point to looming housing downturn

The mainstream finanical media quitely ignores the slowing down of the housing market. At least that is what we are seeing on our Bloomberg screens.

Long-term buy and hold! That’s pretty much what every “financial expert” is quoted saying on the likes of CNBC and such.

If you hold the stock market you will grow with America”, Jack Bogle confidently says.

Sure, buy and hold has worked over the long-term. But there has been numerous downturns, recessions or whatever the hell you want to call them within that ‘exponentially’ growing chart you see from any stock market expert (or as they would call themselves, “equity analysts”).

The experts in the financial media like to focus on the entire forest. They believe leaving out and completely ignoring the details in the data. “Small data points will lead you astray”, says some nerdy finance geek who never got laid until he was 37.

We think the financial media is ignoring the red flashing signs coming from the housing market!

Going through the New Residential Construction data provide by the US Census points a looming sign of depression.

One data point we analyzed was the new residential building permits. In January and February (we don’t have March data yet), new building permits were down -2.38% and -2.06% respectively.

Going into more detail, one-unit permits were down -5.99% and -7.23% for January and February. Two to four unit building permits were down -3.13% in January and a huge negative -18.75% drop in February. However, five-unit permits were up 5.05% in January and 12.36% in February.

housing permits

Housing Permits 2017-2019 (monthly, in thousands) – created by Ad-Venturing

Housing starts providing an even more luminous sign – depicted in the image below.

housing starts

Housing Starts 2017-2019 (monthly, in thousands) – created by Ad-Venturing

Overall, this is a telltale sign of a looming housing crash. The last time housing data looked this bad was in the 2008-2009 financial crises.

We plan to continue providing up-to-date data on the housing market. Subscribe to our email list if you would like continual up-to-date coverage.

Copyright Information: Copyright Ad-Venturing. This content may be freely reproduced in full or in part in digital form with full attribution to the author and a link to www.ad-venturing.com. Please contact us for permission to reproduce this content in other media formats.

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